TIPS ON HOW TO GROW KISUMU COUNTY

Feb 25, 2014 Emmanuel Opiyo Kisumu, Opinions, Peoplespeak 0

The creation of the County Governments by the Constitution of Kenya 2010 has come with a lot of expectations especially when considering the kind of economic marginalization that has been experienced in many regions of Kenya before. It is very critical therefore, that such expectations are managed in view of the realities that are currently prevailing, including implementation of keys aspects of the Constitution as pertaining to Devolution. As the Governor for Machakos aptly put it at one time while being hosted by Citizen TV, if Devolution fails in this country, there would be a revolution.
Accordingly, it will be incumbent on the Governor for Kisumu, the Members of the Executive Committee, Chief Officers and economic think tanks and strategists acting on behalf of the county to do a lot of research in order to come up with development models appropriate for the County and which should then be geared towards a marshal plan intended to make Kisumu County a leading County in economic growth and development.
Personally, I wish to recommend Rostow’s Stages of Growth as one of the models that should be adopted by the County Government of Kisumu. The Rostow’s Stages of Growth model is one of the major historical models of economic growth. It was published by American economist Walt Whitman Rostow in 1960. The model postulates that economic growth occurs in five basic stages, of varying length:

1. Traditional Society

This stage is characterized by subsistence agriculture or hunting & gathering and is almost wholly a “primary” sector economy with limited technology. It also features a static or “rigid” society where there is lack of class or individual economic mobility, with stability prioritized and change seen negatively. This is the current feature of most rural areas of Kisumu County but with exception.

2. Preconditions for Take-off

This stage is characterized by features such as:

External demand for raw materials which initiates economic change

Development of more productive, commercial agriculture & cash crops not consumed by producers and/or largely exported

Widespread and enhanced investment in changes to the physical environment to expand production (i.e. irrigation, canals, ports)

Increasing spread of technology & advances in existing technologies

Changing social structure, with previous social equilibrium now in flux

Creating conditions for individual social mobility and

Development of County identity and shared economic interests

In short this the narrative of all that needs to be done to necessitate economic take off.

3. Take-off

Manufacturing begins to rationalize and scale increases in a few leading industries, as goods are made both for export and domestic consumption. The “secondary” (goods-producing) sector expands and ratio of secondary vs. primary sectors in the economy shifts quickly towards secondary textiles & apparel are usually the first “take-off” industry, as happened in Great Britain’s classic “Industrial Revolution”

4. Drive to Maturity

This stage sets the conditions for diversification of the industrial base where multiple industries expand & new ones take root quickly. This allows manufacturing to shift from investment-driven (capital goods) towards consumer durables & domestic consumption that in turn results in rapid development of transportation infrastructure and large-scale investment in social infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals, etc.)

5. Age of High Mass Consumption

The last stage makes it possible for the industrial base to dominate the economy where the primary sector is of greatly diminished weight in economy & society. It is also characterized by widespread and normative consumption of high-value consumer goods (e.g. automobiles) consumers typically (if not universally), have disposable income, beyond all basic needs, for additional goods
In summary, this economic model will replicate certain features of Kisumu City in the rural parts of Kisumu County with attendant benefits of food security, high income, quality social services and classic infrastructure. Talk of a County in the sun!